斗破苍穹

商业史最庞大叙事：Anthropic 冲击全球最大 IPO，称 AI 潜在市场收入规模超 30 万亿美元_我的网站

A |     On August 10, 1961, American forces for the first time spayed Agent Orange in Vietnam as part of its herbicidal warfare program, Operation Ranch Hand.,Here’s a closer look into this highly toxic defoliant chemical, the use of which by the US military during the 1955-1975 Vietnam War resulted in up to one million people being disabled, according to the Red Cross of Vietnam’s estimates.,What is Agent Orange?,The defoliant derived its name from the color of the orange-striped US gallon barrels in which the chemical was shipped and stored.,It was created in 1940 and used in the United States as an agricultural defoliant, as it had the ability to kill some plants while leaving others unaffected.,Using the Defense Production Act of 1950, the US government prodded several American companies to make Agent Orange for military use. A 50:50 mixture of the herbicides 2,4,5-T and 2,4-D, the defoliant contains an extremely toxic dioxin compound.,Effects of Agent Orange,A 50:50 mixture of the 2,4,5-Trichlorophenoxyacetic acid and 2,4-Dichlorophenoxyacetic acid, Agent Orange contains the Tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin, or TCDD, the most toxic of the dioxins, classified as a human carcinogen by the US Environmental Protection Agency.,Even short-term exposure to TCDD can cause cancer, liver problems and a severe acne-like skin disease, known as chloracne. The dioxin is also linked to type 2 diabetes, immune system dysfunction, nerve disorders, muscular dysfunction, hormone disruption and heart disease.,Additionally, the chemical can cause miscarriages, spina bifida and other problems with fetal brain and nervous system development.,Use of Agent Orange in Vietnam,During the 1955-1975 Vietnam war, the first US defoliation missions were launched near the Vietnamese village of Dak To in 1961.,The goal was to remove cover and concealment used by the Viet Cong and North Vietnamese Army, so as to reveal hidden bases, communications centers and potential targets, and to improve visibility in tracking troop movements.,More than 13 million gallons (about 59 million liters) of Agent Orange was used by the US military in Vietnam, or almost two-thirds of the total amount of herbicides used during the entire Vietnam War.,The chemical was available in slightly different mixtures, sometimes referred to as Agent Orange I, Agent Orange II, Agent Orange III and “Super Orange”.,End of Agent Orange?,In 1969, the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) urged the Pentagon to end its use of herbicides containing dioxin, specifically Agent Orange, something that the Department of Defense (DoD) eventually did.,Even so, the defoliation campaign continued, with the US military switching to Agent White, a chemical herbicide that did not contain the dioxin contaminant.,In May 1970, the US Air Force (USAF) flew its last defoliation mission, and almost a year later, the DoD announced that all crop destruction missions would also cease.,The remaining 2.22 million gallons of Agent Orange were moved by the USAF to Johnston Island Atoll in the South Pacific, where they were incinerated.,Legacy,The Vietnamese government said that up to four million people in the country were exposed to Agent Orange, and as many as three million people had suffered illness because of the defoliant.,The Vietnam Red Cross in turn pointed out that the defoliant had affected at least 150,000 children, and that babies in Vietnam are still being born with birth defects due to Agent Orange. In this regard, numerous studies revealed that dioxin levels are still in place in the blood samples of the citizens of both North and South Vietnam.,The chemical also caused immense environmental damage in Vietnam, with more than 3,100,000 hectares (31,000 km2) of forest being defoliated ( for comparison's sake, Taiwan measures 36,197 km2).,Opinion & AnalysisAnniversary of Agent Orange Disaster: Only United Can We Relieve the Suffering of Many Generations10:21 GMT,Agent Orange-related issues also emerged in the US after an increasing number of returning Vietnam veterans and their families began to report a range of health problems, including skin irritations, miscarriages, psychological symptoms, type 2 diabetes, birth defects in children and cancers such as Hodgkin’s disease, prostate cancer and leukemia.,1979 saw a class action lawsuit filed on behalf of 2.4 million US veterans, who were exposed to Agent Orange during their service in Vietnam. In 1984, seven major US chemical companies that manufactured the defoliant agreed to pay $180 million in damages to the veterans or their next of kin.,Vietnam War,The 1955-1975 Vietnam War, which involved Laos and Cambodia, pitted communist North Vietnam and the Viet Cong revolutionary organization against South Vietnam, supported by Washington.,Preconditions for the war pertained to the desire of North Vietnam, which defeated the French colonial administration in 1954, to unify the entire country under a single communist authority, like in the Soviet Union or China. The South Vietnamese government, for its part, sought to preserve a Vietnam more closely aligned with the West.,The US was concerned over the spread of communism to South Vietnam and then to the rest of Asia, which prompted Washington to end money, supplies and military advisers to help the South Vietnamese government.,On August 2, 1964, North Vietnamese boats attacked a US Navy destroyer, the USS Maddox, patrolling in the Gulf of Tonkin near Vietnam, in what was used by the White House as a pretext to escalate the war and send American combat units to the South East Asian country. However, the US costs and casualties in the war prompted Washington to withdraw American troops by 1973, and a couple of years later, South Vietnam fell to a full-scale invasion by the North.,An array of war crimes was committed by the US military during the war, including the My Lai massacre, in which up to 504 unarmed South Vietnamese civilians, including women, children, and infants, were killed by US Army soldiers on March 16, 1968.,Another war crime pertains to Operation Speedy Express, conducted by the US Army in Vietnam’s Mekong Delta between December 1968 and May 1969 as part of the American military’s effort to pacify the Viet Cong. The operation led to 5,000 to 7,000 casualties who were reported to have been civilians.。     8 月 26 日消息，华尔街日报昨日（8 月 25 日）发布博文，报道称在 IPO 招股书中，Anthropic 为撑起 2 万亿美元（现汇率约合 13.47 万亿元人民币）估值宏大叙事，向投资者提出了超过 30 万亿美元（现汇率约合 202.11 万亿元人民币）的潜在市场规模（TAM）预测，超过 SpaceX 预估的 28.5 万亿美元（现汇率约合 192 万亿元人民币）预测。注：潜在市场规模是指如果一款产品或服务实现了 100% 的市场份额，它在理论上能够获得的最大年度总收入机会，主要向投资者展示自身广阔的增长空间。

B | 马斯克旗下火箭企业 SpaceX，在 5 月提交的文件中将自家 TAM 称作“人类历史上规模最大的市场”。

C | 该 28.5 万亿美元（现汇率约合 192 万亿元人民币）总可寻址市场当中，有 26.5 万亿美元（现汇率约合 178.53 万亿元人民币）来自 AI 业务机会。

D | 对于这个 30 万亿美元（现汇率约合 202.11 万亿元人民币）惊人数字，该媒体认为测算逻辑并非基于现有的软件或硬件销售额，应该是统计了未来全球所有“可被 AI 模型替代或完成的工作”的全部经济价值和劳动力成本。

E | 这一举措直接打破了由 SpaceX 此前保持的 28.5 万亿美元（现汇率约合 192 万亿元人民币）潜在市场纪录，成为商业历史上最庞大的市场叙事。华尔街消息人士透露，Anthropic 拟于 2026 年秋季挂牌上市，其目标募资额高达 1,000 亿美元（现汇率约合 6,737.01 亿元人民币），估值锚定在 2 万亿美元（现汇率约合 13.47 万亿元人民币）左右。敢于开出如此巨额“空头支票”的底气，源于其狂飙的财务表现。数据显示，Anthropic 在 2026 年第二季度单季营收已达 116 亿美元（现汇率约合 781.49 亿元人民币），并首次实现调整后营业利润为正。投资者甚至乐观预测，其年化收入将在今年底冲击 1,000 亿美元（现汇率约合 6,737.01 亿元人民币）大关。不过，华尔街分析师也发出警告，在美国数据中心建设受阻、海外低价模型竞争加剧的背景下，二级市场对超高估值科技股的容错率正在降低，30 万亿的宏大蓝图最终能否打动理性的资本，仍有待 9 月招股书正式披露后的市场检验。

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