乡约

原标题：重磅！今晚美国公布8月通胀报告，预计8.5%降至8%，延续降温趋势作为本周首个重磅数据，今晚美国公布8月通胀报告，预计会延续降温的趋势，从8.5%降至8.1%，核心CPI年率预计维持在5.9%；可能会再次显示较低的环比增长，甚至可能录得负增长（市场预期为-0.1%）。

二 | 能源价格下跌令美国7月通胀率从四十年高位降至通胀开始飙升以来的最低水平，7月环比增速在连续25个月增长后持平，因为能源价格继续缓和，根据EIA的数据，8月份汽油价格大幅下跌。    His songs made him sound like the definition of "laid back." In reality, Jimmy Buffett, who died Friday at age 76, was something of a workaholic. Our contributor Bill Flanagan has an appreciation:

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Jimmy Buffett was a good friend of mine.  And I was not the only one. Jimmy had friends all over the world, from Savannah to Havana, from Mali to Bali. He was a pilot and a sailor, a traveling man who felt at home in a fleabag in Timbuktu or a five-star hotel in Paris.      Jimmy was equally comfortable in the company of philosophers and pirates – maybe because he was a bit of both.I don't think I ever knew anyone with more positive life force. Even when he was in treatment for cancer this last year, Jimmy would come out of the hospital and, instead of resting like he was supposed to, he would jump on one of his planes and fly across the country to play a show. He got something out of his audience that was better than medicine.

    

                                                     

    

He started out playing bars in New Orleans and working as a journalist. In his songwriting he combined those two vocations. He specialized in writing about misfits and shady characters, folks who did not fit into conventional society.                 Jimmy was allergic to taking himself seriously. He said his audience worked hard all week; he owed them a two-hour vacation.Jimmy said he started his first Margaritaville restaurant and bar in Key West because he figured if he owned his own saloon, he would always have a place to play. It was a fallback in case his musical career fizzled out.Jimmy Buffett was the most positive person I ever knew. Everything was an adventure, and if the adventure went sideways, well, we'd come home with a good story.

    

                                                     

    

In his final days he assured his friends he would be back on his feet in a couple of weeks.                      Jimmy Buffett spent his life putting joy into the world.  Bubbles up, Captain. You're going home.

    

                                                     

    

See also: 

• "A poet of paradise": Tributes pour in following the death of Jimmy Buffett
• From 1997: Jimmy Buffett ("60 Minutes" Archive)

Story produced by Alan Golds. Editor: Steven Tyler.      
More from Bill Flanagan:

• Tina Turner: An appreciation of the "Queen of Rock 'n' Roll"
• Little Richard: An appreciation of the "Quasar of Rock 'n' Roll"
• Bill Flanagan on Woodstock: Sign of the times
• Aretha Franklin: An appreciation
• Philip Roth: An appreciation
• Remembering rock legend Tom Petty
• Rockers who defy time itself
• The artistry of David Bowie
• A tribute to Allen Toussaint
• Rod Serling, "The Twilight Zone" and TV's 1st Golden Age
• The Beatles: You say you want a revolution?
• An appreciation of Pete Seeger
• The Everly Brothers: The sweetest DNA of rock and roll
• MTV's Bill Flanagan on Michael Jackson's music
• The soul of Laura Nyro
• Johnny Cash: A Musician For All

。与此同时，机票价格走低，二手车和酒店价格回落，房租上涨也有所放缓。但除此之外，美联储将密切关注食品价格的波动，以寻找潜在通胀正在缓解的迹象，数据显示，一系列商品和服务价格仍远高于一年前的水平，如果这些关键领域物价压力不减，美联储不会轻易放缓加息。但关注随着供应状况的改善传导至消费者，未来几个月食品价格可能会回落。美联储主席鲍威尔明确表示，在放缓或暂停加息之前，希望看到明确且有说服力的证据表明物价压力正在减弱。在上周的讲话中，这一点得到强调，表示“坚定地致力于”抗击通胀。

三 | 不过即便连续放缓，当前说通胀已经过了峰值还为时尚早，特别是考虑冬季能源价格会因为需求再次被推升，作为影响通胀的关键组成部分，很容易将物价再次推向新高。而在通胀公布前，隔夜美股市场因最新通胀预期连续放缓而获得提振，纽约联储的月度消费者预期调查显示，8月消费者认为未来12个月的通胀率料为5.75%，为2021年10月以来最低。消费者还预计未来三年的平均物价增幅为2.8%，为2020年底以来最低。

四 | 美联储官员曾表示，控制通胀预期是确保通胀率在某个时候回落至2%目标的重要组成部分。旧金山联邦储备银行上周发布的一份研究报告称，美国家庭对未来通胀路径的预期越来越多地影响工资要求。

五 | 美联储本月大概率加息75个基点，如果通胀连续放缓，但是放缓势头温和，将不足以改变美联储继续大幅加息的预期，所以今晚市场的波动视乎通胀最终结果和市场预期的出入，尤其是核心通胀的变化。如果通胀连续放缓，美债收益率预计跟随向下，美股向上寻求动力，继续刷新本月的高位。而美元昨晚已经先作调整，如果通胀降温超预期，美元可能进一步下探108，届时金价会获得更大动力延续反弹以1740美元上方为目标。返回搜狐，查看更多责任编辑：