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How FBI's Raid Gave Boost to Trump, Reinvigorated GOP Base Ahead of Midterms_我的网站

A |     　　美国财长贝森特将于当地时间周一举行新闻发布会，披露美国对伊朗“经济战”的细节。周日，伊朗方面再次淡化了美国“经济战”的影响，称针对美国各种敌对行动均已制定应对方案。    "A large part of former President Trump's popularity with his supporters is that he fights back against the establishment, whether it be the 'swamp' in Washington, DC, or the political party elites," says Timothy Hagle, a political science professor at the University of Iowa. "He has certainly been speaking out about the raid, but we will have to wait to see if anything comes of it. By that I mean whether there are any charges actually filed. Unlike most Americans, and aside from his media platforms, Trump has the resources to fight what he thinks are unfair actions by the government.",The FBI's unannounced search of Donald Trump's premises in Mar-a-Lago, Florida has reinvigorated his base, a Politico/Morning Consult survey shows. 58 percent of Republican voters said they would vote for the former president if the 2024 Republican presidential primary were today. The share of support is visibly up from 54% in July and 53% in June, according to the pollsters. Likewise, a whopping 71% of GOP voters insist that Trump should run for president in 2024. Moreover, 72% of Republicans said they disagreed with the Mar-a-Lago raid.,Sputnik ExplainsFirst Assange, Now Trump: How Espionage Act of 1917 Became a Political Tool15:16 GMT,The Daily Mail argues, however, that the poll was conducted prior to the release of the FBI's search warrant and receipt, which showed that the bureau took at least 11 sets of classified documents from Trump's Florida house, with the Justice Department having probable cause to carry out the search based on possible Espionage Act abuses.,However, on August 13, Fox News broke that the FBI had allegedly laid their hands on documents shielded by client-attorney and executive privilege, with Donald Trump taking to his social media platform Truth Social and demanding that the documents in question be returned. The president lambasted the bureau for the raid, insisting that it was unnecessary and unjustified given that all documents in his possession were declassified and he and his team were ready to provide access to them any time.,"For the FBI to raid the home of the 45 President of the United States, or any President for that matter, is totally unheard of and unthinkable," Trump wrote on Sunday. "This Break In was a sneak attack on democracy (our Republic!), and was both unannounced and done at a time when the President was not even present.",Trump supporters reacted passionately to the ex-president's posts by rallying outside Mar-a-Lago and Trump's Bedminster, New Jersey golf club. They were seen holding signs reading "Save America" and "You raided the wrong president.",Sputnik ExplainsHow Trump's 2024 Bid & Jan 6 Committee's Effort to Delegitimize Him May Pan Out19 July, 18:41 GMT,Midterm Elections at Stake,The unfolding situation will definitely backfire on the upcoming November midterm elections, according to Hagle.,"The overall effect on the midterm elections will vary depending on how the situation plays out," the political science professor says. "Trump supporters, and Republicans more generally, were already quite motivated to vote in the midterms, but this just intensifies that desire. Democrats were less motivated and the party was desperately searching for something to get their base motivated. Some thought the Supreme Court's abortion decision might do so, but that doesn't seem to have happened beyond a certain group of core voters.",Hagle notes that Democrats were successful with an "anti-Trump" approach in 2020; he believes that they would like to try that again.,"The thinking might be that if Trump is, figuratively, on the ballot it would help them in the midterms," the academic remarks. "I'm not so sure. There may be some who get more motivated with an anti-Trump fervor, but the economy will still be the key for the important voters who are less concerned about politics and more about day to day living.",The FBI raid came after mainstream media reports that Trump may announce his presidential bid in September 2022 or even earlier. Politico and The Washington Post reported in mid-July that the former president had met with top Republican donors, discussing the midterms and a potential 2024 campaign.,The DoJ investigation into Trump triggered speculation that he may announce his new presidential bid very soon, the Daily Mail reports, also referring to a new "campaign-style video" released by the ex-president on his Truth Social platform.,Meanwhile, Republican Senator Rand Paul has called on US lawmakers to repeal the 1917 Espionage Act, after it turned out that the DoJ suspects Trump of violating Section 793 of the law. Section 793 specifically addresses "gathering, transmitting or losing defense information," and also includes refusal to return information that is demanded by the government.,"I don't think it's realistic to suggest that it be repealed," says Hagle. "It's more likely that certain limitations could be placed on it to help prevent the abuses that people perceive are occurring with it.",In addition to that, there are assumptions that the FBI raid was nothing short of a fishing expedition connected to the probe by the House Select Committee on January 6 Attack aimed at delegitimizing him before the 2024 race.,"The Justice Department should 'show that this was not just a fishing expedition, that they had due cause to go in and to do this, that they did exhaust all other means," Republican Senator Mike Rounds told NBC's Meet the Press, suggesting that the release of the FBI's affidavit would help. "And if they can't do that, then we've got a serious problem on our hands."。美国对伊朗转向经济战，恰恰表明美方在军事领域遭遇挫败。　　作为背景，当地时间8月19日，美国总统特朗普在其社交媒体平台“真实社交”发文称，伊朗未能抓住达成协议的机会，因此他宣布对伊朗采取最严厉经济行动，称这将是一场规模空前的“经济战和经济孤立”。

B | 　　美国财长贝森特上周四（8月20日）预告，将于本周一(8月24日)举行新闻发布会，详细说明美国政府究竟要采取哪些措施。

C | 他当时还表示，美国将对伊朗实施“历史上最严厉的制裁”，这意味着美国可能无需对伊朗展开大规模军事行动。

D | 　　贝森特表示，特朗普政府要求美国盟友和世界其他国家停止与伊朗进行贸易往来。美国将动用“全部力量”对付任何不遵守这一要求的国家。　　“我们将直接告诉他们，要么站在我们这一边，要么站在我们的对立面。现在到了我们的盟友以及世界其他国家作出选择的时候。我们将彻底摧毁伊朗政权的经济。

E | ”贝森特称。

F | 　　伊朗淡化美国“经济战”威胁　　伊朗方面周日淡化了特朗普政府的上述威胁。伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队的一名发言人表示，伊朗有办法 “化解敌方战争带来的不利影响”，并且能够 “轻松同各国建立经济往来”。　　综合央视新闻等媒体报道，据伊朗方面当地时间23日消息，伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队发言人穆赫比当天表示，伊朗针对美国各种敌对行动均已制定应对方案，包括应对经济施压。

G | 　　穆赫比在伊朗北部城市卡拉季举行的新闻发布会上称，美国日前宣布对伊朗发动“最严厉的经济战”，这一表态实际上表明美方在军事领域未能实现目标。　　“美国总统称已下令发动经济战，对伊朗发起史上最严厉的经济攻势。这恰恰变相承认，敌方已经在军事领域遭遇屈辱性失败。　　他还表示，美国对伊朗实施经济制裁已有47年，当前有关“经济战”的表态意在对伊朗民众施加心理影响。　　穆赫比表示，伊方已制定方案以应对“经济战”造成的不利影响，并将继续“在美国眼皮底下”同其他国家开展经济往来、绕过美国限制。

H | 他称，伊朗在经济领域“没有担忧”，有关措施的效果将在不久后显现。

I | 　　与此同时，伊朗高官再次警告称，美国对伊“经济战”将面临后果。　　伊朗最高国家安全委员会秘书雷扎伊表示，如果美国对伊朗继续发动经济战，则没有石油会通过霍尔木兹海峡乃至波斯湾地区。伊朗将把任何国家参与或支持美国对伊朗人民发动的经济战视为战争行为。　　分析师也质疑经济制裁效果　　对于美国最新的经济制裁举措，大多数分析人士认为将无济于事，因为自1979年伊斯兰革命以来，伊朗已经经受了近50年的严厉经济制裁。

J | 　　加拿大皇家银行资本市场（RBC）策略主管Helima Croft日前在接受采访时表示，伊朗已经是世界上受制裁最多的国家之一。更多的经济压力能否改变伊朗的行为，目前尚不明朗。　　这位分析师还指出，伊朗仍然具备在霍尔木兹海峡攻击船只以及打击中东地区基础设施的能力。（文章来源：财联社）。

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