木棉花的春天

GOP Not Shying Away From Abortion_我的网站

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Republican presidential candidates have been one-upping each other on abortion limits and bans, with participants in this week's GOP primary debate vowing to sign a federal ban on the procedure.

The Democrats' response has been to bury Republicans with their own words, including with a national ad the Biden-Harris campaign released Friday featuring clips of former President Donald Trump, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina pledging to stop abortion – by punishing women who have one, in Trump's case.

Since the 2022 Supreme Court decision taking away guaranteed abortion rights, both parties have elevated the issue in their campaigns. And both think it will be a winner for them in 2024.

"These guys showed us this week they don’t have a clue about the power of women," President Joe Biden said on social media, releasing his and Vice President Kamala Harris' new ad. "They are about to find out."

The campaign is spending $25 million to run the ad online and in the battleground states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Former Vice President Mike Pence, meanwhile, said during Wednesday night's debate in Milwaukee that he is a "champion for life" who would sign a ban on abortion after 15 weeks. When Nikki Haley, a former U.S. ambassador who also opposes abortion, countered that the votes aren't there in the Senate to overcome a filibuster, Pence shot back, saying, "Consensus is the opposite of leadership."

DeSantis, meanwhile, bragged about his signing of a six-week abortion ban in Florida, while Scott said he would back the 15-week ban. In April, Scott said in an interview with NBC News that he would sign "the most conservative, pro-life” legislation into law."

That's an approach that plays very well with the GOP primary electorate, which largely opposes abortion. A recent CBS/YouGov poll found that 68% of Republican voters think abortion should be illegal in all or most cases.

And Republicans – like Democrats – aren't shying away from the issue.

“I was very pleased to see them talk about abortion,” RNC Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel told Fox News the morning after the debate. “Democrats used that in 2022. ... If our candidates aren’t able to fend a response and put out a response, we’re not going to win. They’re going to do it again in 2024. And I thought all of them did a really good job on that.”

But since the June 2022 ruling Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization, the pro-abortion rights side has become newly energized. While anti-abortion forces have had success in the courts (the South Carolina state Supreme Court this week upheld a near-total ban on abortion), abortion foes have been losing consistently when the matter is put directly before voters – a troubling trend for anti-abortion forces ahead of what is expected to be a highly competitive 2024 election.

Since Dobbs, voters in California, Michigan and Vermont approved referendums to enshrine abortion rights in the state constitutions, unsurprising for three states where Democrats are in control. But in three red states – Kansas, Kentucky and Montana – measures to reject guaranteed abortion rights were defeated.

Further, Ohio voters overwhelmingly this month rejected a measure that would require a supermajority of 60% to pass a state constitutional amendment. That means abortion rights advocates will have a much easier time winning a referendum on the ballot this fall to ensure abortion rights. Polling shows strong support for that measure.

More problematic for Republicans going forward – at least from an electoral perspective – is a slate of referendums proposed for 2024 state ballots. In Arizona, Florida, Maryland, Missouri, New York and South Dakota, advocates are pushing for votes to protect reproductive rights. Abortion foes are trying to get referendums on the ballot in Iowa, Nebraska and Pennsylvania to prohibit abortion or to state clearly that the state constitution does not guarantee the right to abortion.

The fate of those ballot initiatives (should activists indeed get the signatures required to get them on the ballot) may be secondary to another factor: voter turnout.

In Arizona, a state Biden won by a razor-thin 10,457 votes, the referendum could spur pro-abortion rights voters to go to the polls – perhaps providing a critical difference for an incumbent president who, polling indicates, does not inspire excitement among Democrats. The same may well be true in Pennsylvania, a state Biden won by 81,660 votes – about 0.2% of the voting electorate.

"I think what we’ve seen here is across partisan lines, in red, blue and purple states, voters have made themselves clear – they want to protect reproductive freedom," says Ally Boguhn, spokesperson for NARAL Pro-Choice America. "I do think we're going to continue to see this as something that will drive them to the polls."

Republicans argue that forging ahead with abortion bans, taking advantage of the free-for-all created by the Dobbs ruling, will motivate their voters as well.

Cindy Dahlgren, a spokesperson for the Center for Arizona Policy, which opposes the referendum enshrining abortion rights, says there will be "plenty of reasons turnout will be high in 2024," including inflation and the fact that it is a presidential year.

The proposed Arizona referendum, she says, goes too far.

"It would make regulating abortion virtually impossible and that is not where Arizonans are on abortion and why abortion law should be set by lawmakers who can make changes to the law as needed," Dahlgren says.

But polling indicates that Democrats have an edge on motivating their voters around the abortion issue.

A Kaiser Family Foundation survey in May found that 30% of voters will cast a ballot only for a candidate who agrees with them on abortion. Broken down, that includes 46% of Democrats, 23% of independents, and 20% of Republicans, suggesting Democrats are more likely to make abortion rights a litmus test issue.

Further, Democrats have an edge among self-described independents in the poll, with 36% of independents saying Democrats more closely represented their views on abortion and 13% saying Republicans' views on the issue were closer to their own.

Mary Owens, communications director for SBA Pro-Life America, says the anti-abortion movement needs to learn the lessons from Ohio to win next year.

"So far, in all of the state battles, our side has failed to take this approach, allowing the left and pro-abortion industry and allies to define the effort," Owens says. "We must define the issues at stake early and often with a simple message."

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二 | 　　对于美国财政部试图强行压制长端美债利率的动向，华尔街提出了另一层担忧：把美债问题压下去的同时，美元会不会被动承压。　　作为最新的案例，城堡证券在最新报告中指出，美国财政部试图通过国债回购来压低长期融资成本的做法，本质上属于一种“金融抑制”（financial repression），可能削弱美元，并加剧通胀压力。

三 | 　　在长期美债收益率升至多年高位后，美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特上周扩大了国债回购计划。周一的最新消息显示，除了增发短期国债外，贝森特可能动用财政部一般账户（即财政部存放在美联储的现金余额）为这些回购操作提供资金。

四 | 　　城堡证券认为，这种干预可能会把市场对于财政前景和通胀的担忧，从美债市场转移到外汇市场。因为较低的美债收益率会削弱美元资产的吸引力，从而可能导致美元走弱，并进一步推高进口商品价格。　　“更广泛地说，这实际上已经在边际上构成了‘金融抑制’，”城堡证券欧洲、中东和非洲固定收益销售主管诺沙德·沙阿（Nohshad Shah）在报告中写道。“阻止美国国债以更低价格完成市场出清，并不会消除这种压力，只不过是把压力转移到了其他地方。”　　沙阿进一步表示，压低长期收益率并不能消除推动利率上升的根本经济力量。在就业接近充分、人工智能领域投资规模庞大的背景下，宽松的财政和货币政策仍在刺激经济。美元走弱将进一步放松金融条件，并可能通过刺激需求、推高进口商品价格等渠道增加通胀压力。　　所以兜兜转转，一切又回到了问题的原点：美联储和美国财政部都需要做好自己的份内事。　　沙阿写道：“债券市场释放的信息非常直接：财政政策或货币政策应该收紧。真正具有持久效果的解决方案，不是反复干预市场，而是在财政政策上作出更艰难的选择，同时央行也需要主动走在通胀前面——如果有必要，甚至应该通过加息来做到这一点。”　　与城堡证券类似，多家知名机构也对美元的前景感到担忧。华尔街还将其称为“货币贬值交易”（debasement trade），这个术语指的是投资者会抛售容易受到冲击的货币或证券，转而投资黄金等“避险”资产。　　其中，德意志银行的全球外汇研究主管George Saravelos指出，如果美国国债的市场价格“不被‘允许’下跌”，那么外国投资者所持美国国债的外汇价格就必须通过美元走弱来进行调整。　　布鲁金斯学会高级研究员Robin Brooks更是直言美国财政部在“玩火”。