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iPhone折叠，iPad探路？_我的网站

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图源：苹果官网根据欧盟协议，从智能手机、耳机到数码相机、平板电脑的所有产品的制造商，从2024年秋季开始都要使用相同的通用充电端口——USB-C，到2026年底，笔记本电脑也要换成USB-C接口。    Editor's Note:
With China's population of seniors over 60 surpassing 300 million, ensuring a happy and fulfilling life for all seniors has become a pressing issue for both families and the nation. How can the new generation of seniors in China break away from traditional norms and embrace a different lifestyle, supported by AI technology, multiculturalism and an elder-friendly society? 
The series "Old Age, New Trends" explores emerging trends in the silver economy, creative social norms among senior citizens and innovative eldercare services. It examines the opportunities and challenges presented by an aging society, highlighting the diverse lifestyles of seniors and the booming eldercare industry in China. Beneath these new trends lies a reflection of Chinese modernization, which aims to provide more secure systems and dignified lives for its senior population.

    Chinese elderly tourists pose for a photo during a trip to Antarctica. Photo: Courtesy of Zhang XinyuanThe camera moves across ice and water of Greenland before settling on a group of travelers speaking Putonghua. Many are retired. They have come a long way from China to a place that, for much of their working lives, belonged more to maps and documentaries than to any realistic travel plan.
Polar journeys require money, good health and patience for long flights and itineraries that may change with the weather. Yet on ships bound for Antarctica, and tours reaching into the Arctic, retired teachers, doctors, researchers and business managers are becoming easier to find. 
After decades scheduled around work and family, they now possess something that was once just as scarce as money: uninterrupted time.
By the end of 2025, China had 323.38 million people aged 60 or above, accounting for 23 percent of its population, according to the Xinhua News Agency. Their incomes, health and family circumstances vary enormously, and polar travelers remain a small, relatively affluent group. Still, their choices bring one change into sharp focus: For some among this new generation of retirees, growing older no longer means simply drawing the boundaries of life inward. It may also be a chance to return to journeys postponed for decades.
Behind every such journey lies a practical calculation: Is the body ready? Is the expense manageable? Can family responsibilities be set aside long enough? The answers are reshaping both travel products and ideas about life after work. At the farthest reaches of the map, some Chinese retirees are asking a new question: With their careers behind them and years still ahead, where do they want to go next?
No longer waiting
In early 2025, 63-year-old He Man stood on a snow-covered slope at Port Charcot in Antarctica and looked back toward the sea. 
The Silver Endeavour, the ship that had brought her there, had shrunk to a white speck against the blue water. Penguins wandered nearby. "Standing there, I suddenly realized how small I was - and how small my problems were," she told the Global Times.
It was a journey He Man had postponed for most of her adult life. Before retiring, she was a deputy chief physician at the dental center of Shenzhen People's Hospital in Shenzhen, South China's Guangdong Province. During her 38-year medical career, most days she got up at 6 am, arrived at the hospital around 7 and began seeing patients at 8. On busy days, patients queued up outside her consulting room and she could barely stop for a drink of water.
During the last 20 years of her career, she had no more than 15 days of annual leave each year. Once time was set aside for caring for elderly relatives and looking after her child, what remained was enough only for short trips. She had visited several countries in Europe and North America, but Antarctica remained beyond reach.
"Antarctica had always been a dream, but I never really dared to imagine going," she said. The possibility became real only after friends from university made the journey in 2023 and 2024 and encouraged her to follow. By then, she had retired at 60. More important than anything else, she said, was that her time was finally her own.
In October 2024, she booked a place on an expedition ship carrying about 200 passengers. She went with her husband, a neighboring couple and another couple with whom they often traveled, forming a group of six. 
The early-booking cruise fare exceeded 150,000 yuan ($22,250) per person. She and her husband later paid another 40,000 yuan each to upgrade their flights to business class.
"On a journey this long, at our age, we should treat ourselves well," she said. The flights between China and South America alone took more than 30 hours. The entire journey eventually lasted 41 days, combining an 11-day Antarctic cruise with visits to Argentina, Brazil, Peru and Chile. "Since we had flown so far, we wanted to see it all in one go."
The journey began with a lesson in polar uncertainty. To catch a period of calmer weather across the Drake Passage, the ship moved its scheduled departure from noon to 6 am. 
The couple reached the port in Chile before dawn after barely sleeping, only to learn that replenishment and repairs had taken longer than expected. The weather window closed, and the captain diverted through the Beagle Channel while waiting two days for conditions to improve.
The retired doctor did not regard the delay as time lost. Marine biologists, ornithologists, geologists and polar historians delivered lectures on board throughout the day, while passengers watched the fjords outside. "There were many older people on the ship. We had time, and nobody was really in a hurry," she said.
When she finally stepped onto the Antarctic snow, she said she was so overwhelmed that she wanted to cry. The trip did not remove the pressures waiting for her at home, but it changed the scale on which she viewed them. 
"When I feel stressed or upset now, I think of Antarctica," she said. "Life is only so long. Don't hold yourself too tightly. Let go when you should."
    Scenery of Antarctica Photo: Courtesy of Zhang XinyuanBeyond one journey
According to He Man, people aged 60 or above accounted for more than half of the passengers on board, while Chinese travelers also made up more than half. After returning home, some of the travelers from Shenzhen created a WeChat group, while others had already begun discussing their next destination.
Travel agencies specializing in expedition cruises have noticed the same pattern. Zhang Xinyuan, founder and CEO of Newayer Cruises, told the Global Times that the company entered the Antarctic market in 2008 and sent its first group the following year. It has since served approximately 6,000 travelers on trips to the Arctic and Antarctica. 
Among its customers, more than 65 percent are aged over 50, with those between 55 and 65 forming the largest group.
The makeup of that group has changed. Before 2020, Zhang said, most of the agency's polar customers were private business owners, senior executives and their family members. In recent years, the professional backgrounds of its customers have become more varied, with retired teachers, doctors, researchers and managers from public institutions increasingly represented. Retired women traveling alone have also become more visible.
Their journeys do not necessarily end after one polar voyage. Zhang once regarded Antarctica as a once-in-a-lifetime destination, but found that some customers continued on to the Arctic, the Galapagos Islands or wildlife reserves in Africa. 
She cited a recently retired couple who booked trips to both Antarctica and the Arctic. While still aboard the Arctic cruise, they asked to reserve places on a southern Africa itinerary planned for the following year.
Industry data suggest that this is a growing, though still expensive, segment of the travel market. During the 2024-25 Antarctic season, Chinese nationals accounted for 10 percent of passengers traveling with operators belonging to the International Association of Antarctica Tour Operators, or IAATO, the second-largest share after the US. 
In the 2025-26 season, IAATO operators recorded 85,195 visitors who landed in Antarctica and another 27,217 cruise-only passengers. The association said China had seen the greatest post-pandemic increase among the main sources of Antarctic travelers. 
Data released by Tongcheng Travel offer a closer view of the high-end market. From January to September 2025, travelers aged between 50 and 70 accounted for more than 70 percent of users booking outbound luxury cruises on the platform. Among customers purchasing polar cruise products priced above 100,000 yuan, more than 90 percent were classified by the company as silver travelers.
As the customer base changes, the product is changing with it. Zhang said the longest flights, rather than the cruise itself, often present the greatest physical challenge. On board, travelers can decide whether to join shore landings, hikes or Zodiac cruises according to their physical fitness and health condition. 
At Newayer Cruises, travelers aged between 75 and 80 are generally asked to provide medical documentation and travel with a family member. Its group products include emergency medical and evacuation insurance, while tour leaders accompany passengers from departure.
The agency has also added Chinese-language services and meals familiar to Chinese passengers, while leaving more space in itineraries rather than packing each day with activities. Flexibility is needed for reasons beyond the traveler's own health. 
    A ship sails among icebergs in Antarctica. Photo: VCGThe Arctic can wait
Polar travel occupies the expensive outer edge of a much broader change in how older Chinese people spend their time. By the end of 2025, China had 323.38 million people aged 60 or above, accounting for 23 percent of the population. Those aged 65 or above numbered 223.65 million, or 15.9 percent. 
The National Bureau of Statistics noted that people aged between 60 and 64 made up a relatively large part of the older population, and that many were still healthy and participated in social activities. 
Travel is becoming one outlet for this age group. Data cited by the National Development and Reform Commission show that older travelers account for more than 20 percent of China's total tourist numbers. 
Du Peng, dean of the School of Population and Health and director of the Institute of Gerontology at Renmin University of China, noted in a CCTV interview that more than 20 million people would enter old age each year over the following decade. Compared with earlier generations, he said, many would be better educated, assess their own health more positively and use the internet with greater ease. 
Policy is beginning to respond to this more varied picture of old age. A State Council document on developing the silver economy calls for replacing rigid age restrictions on travel with assessments based more closely on health, while expanding travel insurance and strengthening consumer protection. 
Still, the retirees boarding polar ships should not be treated as a portrait of all 323 million older Chinese people. They are a relatively small group able to meet three demanding conditions at once: sufficient savings, good health and control over their time.
Therefore, what these polar travelers demonstrate is not that every retirement should become an expensive adventure. Rather, they show that later life is becoming less uniform: rest and care remain essential, but for some people, retirement may also contain study, creative work, new friendships and journeys once postponed by jobs and family obligations.
Back in Shenzhen, He Man now divides her Xiaohongshu (RedNote) posts between dental-health advice and notes from her travels. Antarctica has been crossed off the list, but the list itself continues to grow. 
She is considering a trip to see the animal migration in Africa and another to watch the aurora in Iceland. The Arctic is lower down on her list.
The Arctic can wait. This time, the delay is hers to decide.

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B | 按照欧盟竞争事务负责人玛格丽特·韦斯塔格尔的解释，这一新规是为了减少堆积如山的过时充电器，促进环保事业发展。但苹果在“贯彻”欧盟这一环保主张时，打了一个小小的折扣。即便在Apple Pencil 2已经开发出磁吸式无线充电多年后，iPad 10仍然仅支持使用Lightning接口的Apple Pencil 1。为了适配iPad 10的USB-C新接口，苹果将在Apple Pencil 1中搭配出售Lightning to USB-C转换器，售价67元。根据知名苹果分析师郭明錤预测，2023年的iPhone 15系列有望首次适配USB-C接口，但可能仅限于Pro型号，及至2024年的iPhone 16上市，才会全系配备。除了USB-C接口，iPad作为苹果探路石的更大动作，还可能在折叠屏领域展开。分析机构CCS Insight近日发布的年度预测报告指出，苹果将在2024年率先用iPad试水可折叠产品形态，而非外界传闻的iPhone。这也与郭明錤的某些预测相一致。

C | 此前，郭明錤曾指出，苹果正在测试一款9吋OLED折叠屏，第一款可折叠设备可能是iPhone和iPad的混合体，不排除直接以折叠屏iPad形态推出。在Android阵营已经推出各类折叠屏手机将近五年后，本就落后一步的苹果再退一步，选择以平板试水折叠屏领域。在智能手机市场持续不断的下行周期前面，作为苹果CEO的库克，在推出新品上可能正在变得更加保守。一在已经上市发行的折叠屏产品上，一众Android厂商的惯常做法都是先手机后平板。位列全球智能手机出货量第一的三星，在2019年发布首款折叠屏手机后，今年8月份被爆出将在2023年1月份发布首款可折叠Galaxy平板电脑。苹果之所以反其道而行之，在CCS Insight研究主管本·伍德看来，一方面是高昂的折叠iPhone可能冲击现有iPhone产品序列，另一方面如果苹果在可折叠手机方面存在任何技术问题，都将招致外部批评者的猛烈攻击，可能给品牌声誉造成不利影响。尤其在全球智能手机正在迎来下滑周期的大背景下，“让库克冒着折损营收占比近半的现金牛业务风险，在iPhone上试水折叠形态，正变得越发艰难。”IDC分析师唐明说道。根据IDC数据报告，2022年智能手机出货量预估将减少6.5%至12.7亿部。自2021年以来，手机行业已转向需求受限的市场。

D | 为了填补全球智能手机需求下降可能带来的营收下滑风险，库克已经开始对苹果内部既有业务进行有史以来最大的调整，以广开财路。据彭博社8月份的爆料，苹果正在一改往日广告推行规则，计划将广告扩展到iPhone和iPad等更多领域，以创造新的收入渠道；广告策略调整之前的3月份，苹果还被媒体爆出了一项围绕硬件的全新订阅服务，即让订阅用户每月只需支付一定的费用，便可以直接使用新发布的硬件产品，类似于iCloud模式，以刺激更多用户换机。在可折叠设备已经成为既定发展趋势之下，不想在iPhone上承担风险、又不能错失这波产品设计浪潮的苹果，拿地位不是那么重要的iPad试水，就有了更多现实的可能性。

E | 从财报来看，在今年二季度之前，iPad一直是苹果所有产品类别中唯一实现营收同比下滑的硬件，为了应对供应链短缺局面，iPad不得不在优先级上为其他产品让路。

F | 库克就曾在财报会上多次解释称，iPad业务营收的同比下滑，主要是供应链瓶颈限制造成的。此外，通过iPad试水折叠产品领域，苹果还能为iPhone提前进行一场围绕可折叠生态的大练兵，这既包括折叠产品供应链生态的演练，也包括对折叠屏软件生态的开发预演。截至目前，在iPhone三家OLED屏幕供应商中，仅被爆出三星曾与苹果洽谈过柔性OLED面板合作消息，LG Display甚至尚未有可量产的可折叠手机屏幕方案落地。

G | 这与同一零件寻找多家生产的苹果供应链策略形成了分歧。

H | 根据潮电智库董事长孙燕飚向字母榜的爆料，京东方也将成为苹果折叠屏产品中柔性OLED面板的供货商之一。而折叠屏iPad很可能就是检验京东方产品实力的一场实战。除此之外，维信诺、华星光电等已向Android折叠屏手机量产供货的柔性OLED面板商，也都有了进入苹果供应链的新机会。

I | 在构筑起苹果第二增长曲线的软件服务上面，作为全新形态的折叠屏，苹果同样需要引导第三方开发商进行各类APP的软件适配和应用丰富，“iPad的提前试水可以让苹果聚拢相关开发资源，在获取外部反馈意见基础上逐步优化折叠形态的使用体验，确保折叠屏iPhone推出后更大概率的成功。”唐明分析道。

J | 二2010年首款iPad亮相时，无论外观设计还是硬件配置，iPad都往往落后于iPhone一两代。iPhone，才是那个承担起苹果探索新技术、应用新设计重担的主角。以全面屏为例，在2017年首款全面屏手机iPhone X发布之后，iPad Pro、iPad mini等才陆续转换到全面屏风格。

K | 在刚刚更新的iPad 10上，这一点体现得更为明显。

L | 在iPhone已经搭载A16芯片之余，iPad 10还在沿用A14芯片，且终于取消了Home按键，开始转向全面屏设计。在苹果有望选中iPad试水折叠产品的消息爆出之前，有关苹果将推出折叠屏iPhone的传闻，时不时就会流传于网络。2019年，三星首款折叠屏手机Galaxy Fold发布时，网上就开始有传言称苹果内部也在筹备折叠iPhone。过去四年间，网上不仅爆出众多折叠iPhone渲染图，还披露了不少涉及苹果折叠产品的专利信息。最新的一份专利是9月份曝光的“具有柔性显示屏覆盖层的电子设备”。

M | 根据专利资料描述，该电子设备配有铰链，允许在弯曲轴上进行弯曲。

N | 为了帮助减轻弯曲过程中柔性显示屏覆盖层中的凹痕、划痕或缺陷的数量，在显示屏中覆盖了一层可“自愈”的材料，以便在受到折叠磨损后进行自我修复。更早之前，外媒Seekdevice还曾报道过苹果申请了一项独特的柔性屏幕设计来解决折叠问题，以及内部正在开发一种具有独特铰链机制的可折叠设备专利，和新的涂层专利……综合网络公开信息，目前曝光出的苹果折叠屏iPhone或将存在两种形态，即像三星一样的左右折叠和上下折叠。左右折叠版iPhone，展开状态下屏幕尺寸为8.9吋，约等于两台6.7吋的iPhone拼接在一起的效果；上下折叠版iPhone，大致可理解为一台可以上下折叠的6.7吋iPhone。不过值得注意的是，和三星方案不同的是，上下折叠版iPhone可能不会设计能够显示消息提示等的副屏。三作为一个行业公开的秘密，苹果开发折叠屏iPhone，可能只剩下上市时间的问题。作为近年来最具创新的品类，折叠屏已经成为智能手机行业为数不多的逆势增长点。Omdia数据统计显示，2021年全球折叠屏手机出货量实现了309%的年同比增长。到2026年，全球折叠屏手机市场出货量有望达到6100万台，占比达到3.6%。为了刺激用户换机意愿，苹果也需要下场。毕竟，现在仅靠苹果的品牌影响力，已经越来越带不动消费者了。根据台湾电子时报近日的报道，由于市场遇冷，苹果已确定将大砍iPhone 14 Plus订单，砍单幅度达到四成左右，缺口将由更受欢迎的iPhone 14 Pro系列填补。而造成iPhone 14系列机型不同命运的一大原因，就是在Pro版本上不仅搭载了新一代芯片，还更改了外观设计，加入全新互动模式——灵动岛。在孙燕飚看来，折叠屏iPhone一旦推出，势必能掀起新一波换机潮。行业同样在期待折叠屏iPhone的到来。无论是想要解决屏幕良品率问题，还是想要构建起更加丰富的软件开发生态，都需要越来越多手机厂商进入折叠屏细分市场，不断推出新品。“只要有足够大的需求，这些都将不是问题。”唐明表示。

o | 但在实现上述目标之前，苹果折叠屏iPhone还需要直面不少挑战。

p | 在库克为苹果未来规划的三大突破领域——人工智能，AR和自动驾驶方面，围绕后两者落地的智能眼镜和智能汽车项目，在2015年被首次曝光后都经历了内部研发路线的摇摆，令其产品上市时间一拖再拖。这样的遭遇也正在折叠屏领域上演。随着折叠iPad在2024年上市，传闻不断的折叠屏iPhone究竟还能否在2025年左右上市，又成了一个令人怀疑的新问题。而且，抢跑苹果的Android厂商们，已经在折叠屏领域相继探索了屏幕外折、屏幕内折、屏幕上下弯折、折三折、卷轴等等方案，并提前试错了哪些功能和场景是适合折叠屏的，哪些互动和操作是有待继续改进的。后发的苹果在折叠形态和折叠技术上，究竟还能有多少重新定义的空间，也不免让外界感到担忧。外界太想再看到一次乔布斯式的创新，这或许也是让库克迟迟未能推出折叠屏iPhone的原因之一吧。

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