杨澜访谈录

对于中国的基建能力，全球可谓有目共睹。尤其是在高铁建设能力上，虽然中国起步时间晚，但现在不管是设计、建造、运营、维护等的各项能力，都得到了快速提升和充分发展。    LOS ANGELES -- By the time the scuba dive boat sank off the Southern California coast after catching fire, 34 people had been killed in the deadliest maritime disaster in recent U.S. history.The Labor Day tragedy in 2019 spurred changes to maritime regulations, congressional reform and civil lawsuits. Now four years later, a federal trial for the Conception's captain, Jerry Boylan, is set to begin Tuesday with jury selection in Los Angeles.It's been a long, frustrating wait for the families of those who perished. They say a judge's ruling that their loved ones should not be called “victims” at trial has only added to their pain. “The past four years have been like living in a nightmare that you don’t wake up from,” said Kathleen McIlvain, whose 44-year-old son Charles was killed. The 75-foot (23-meter) boat was anchored off the Channel Islands, about 25 miles (40 kilometers) south of Santa Barbara, on Sept. 2, 2019, when it caught fire before dawn on the last day of a three-day excursion, sinking less than 100 feet (30 meters) from shore. The National Transportation Safety Board blamed Boylan for the tragedy, saying his failure to post a roving night watchman allowed the fire to quickly spread undetected, trapping the 33 passengers and one crew member below. Those on board included a new deckhand who’d landed her dream job and an environmental scientist who did research in Antarctica, along with a globe-trotting couple, a Singaporean data scientist, three sisters, their father and his wife. U.S. District Judge George Wu on Oct. 12 granted Boylan's request to bar most if not all references to “victims” — which the captain's attorneys say is a prejudicial term that jeopardizes his right to a fair trial. It's the latest setback for the prosecution.A grand jury in 2020 initially indicted Boylan on 34 counts of a pre-Civil War statute colloquially known as “seaman’s manslaughter” that was designed to hold steamboat captains and crew responsible for maritime disasters. Each count carries up to 10 years in prison in a conviction, for a total of 340 years.Defense lawyers sought to dismiss those charges, arguing the deaths were the result of a single incident and not separate crimes. Prosecutors got a superseding indictment charging Boylan with only one count.Then in 2022, Wu ruled the superseding indictment failed to specify that Boylan acted with gross negligence, saying that was a required element to prove the crime of seaman’s manslaughter. He dismissed that indictment, forcing prosecutors to go before a grand jury again.Boylan is now charged with one count of misconduct or neglect of ship officer. The single count means he faces only 10 years behind bars if convicted.He has pleaded not guilty and denied any wrongdoing. His federal public defenders did not return The Associated Press' repeated requests for comment, and a spokesperson for the U.S. Attorney's Office declined to comment.Some of the dead were wearing shoes, prompting investigators to believe they were awake and trying to escape. Both exits from the below-deck bunkroom were blocked by flames. Coroner’s reports list smoke inhalation as the cause of death, though official autopsies were never conducted.What exactly started the predawn fire remains unknown. Early official scrutiny appeared to focus on a spot where divers plugged in phones and other electronics. But a Los Angeles Times story, citing a confidential report by the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives, said the blaze began in a plastic trash can on the main deck though an official cause remains undetermined. Boylan and four crew members sleeping in the upper deck told investigators they tried to save the others but were ultimately forced to jump overboard to survive. Boylan made a mayday call at 3:14 a.m. just before abandoning ship.Dozens of family members have since formed “Advocacy34” to push for strengthened boating regulations. While seeking answers, they’ve comforted each other during loved ones’ missed birthdays and mourned each anniversary.“We have no idea when we’ll get those answers, or if we ever will,” McIlvain said.At the time of the fire, no owner, operator or charterer had been cited or fined for failure to post a roving patrol since 1991, Coast Guard records showed.The NTSB faulted the Coast Guard for not enforcing that requirement and recommended it develop a program to ensure boats with overnight passengers actually have the watchman.The Coast Guard has since enacted new regulations regarding fire detection systems, extinguishers, escape routes and other safety measures as mandated by Congress. But it has yet to implement a comprehensive safety management system after industry advocates pushed back, citing costs.Victims' families have sued the Coast Guard in one of several ongoing civil suits.Three days after the inferno, Truth Aquatics Inc., which belongs to the Conception’s owners, Glen and Dana Fritzler, filed a lawsuit in U.S. District Court in Los Angeles under a pre-Civil War provision of maritime law that allows it to limit its liability to the remains of the boat, which was a total loss. The time-tested legal maneuver has been successfully employed by the owners of the Titanic and other vessels, and requires the Fritzlers show they were not at fault.The couple's attorneys did not respond to requests for comment.In response to the families' outcry, federal lawmakers last year updated the Limitation of Liability Act of 1851 so owners can be held liable for damages regardless of the boat’s value afterward. The law is not retroactive, however, and will not apply in the case of the Conception.。中国已经向土耳其、俄罗斯、印尼、塞尔维亚出口了高铁技术，得到了海外国家的认可。

不过，此前中国试图在高铁项目上与保加利亚展开合作时，却意外遭到了对方拒绝：在中国高铁或西班牙高铁之间，保加利亚选择了后者。就当所有人都对中国的失利感觉失望和不解时，一条最新的消息传来：西班牙因为无法在33个月内如期交付项目而违约。保加利亚自食其果，却头铁到底宣布放弃高铁项目，真是项目泡汤了也不给中国，那么保加利亚又何必选择做出这种谁也捞不到好处的行为呢？

早先，保加利亚抛出了高铁建设招标项目，计划总投资6.1亿欧元，获得20列高铁列车、15年的列车保修以及相关的人员培训服务。6.1亿欧，对于拥有高铁技术的国家来说并不算太大的订单，而且33个月的限期交付时间，也让很多国家望而却步。所以最终进入第二轮招标的，只有中车青岛四方机车车辆股份有限公司和西班牙的Talgo公司。报价方面，四方机车给出的报价是只需3.3亿欧元，而西班牙Talgo公司给出的最终报价，略高于6.1亿欧元。中方的实际报价只有保加利亚预算的46.7%，完全就是打了一个骨折价，所以价格方面，中国完胜。

保加利亚不算是富裕国家，高铁的建设又牵扯到国家的经济发展。按照正常逻辑来说，有人愿意提供高品质且超低价的商品和服务，本应毫无理由拒绝。结果保加利亚却毅然决然选择报价更高的西班牙公司，让人感到十分费解。不仅如此，今年2月份，欧盟因为中方报价太低的问题，还启动了补贴调查，即欧盟方面怀疑四方机车给出超低价的真正原因，是中国政府背后给了大额补贴。

欧盟怀疑中方此举疑似涉及不正当竞争，违反《外国补贴法规》。为了避免徒生事端，在欧盟启动调查后，四方机车也无奈宣布，迫于外界压力，只能退出保加利亚高铁项目的竞标。结果这事还没过去多久，西班牙公司就宣布自己无力在33个月之内满足保加利亚方面的项目需求，按时交付。只能说西班牙公司真是早知今日又何必当初，既然没能力交付，又何必来竞争，最后把自己搞违约了。更绝的是，到了此时，保加利亚似乎还不打算给中国公司一点机会，直接宣布取消高铁项目。这意味着，保加利亚方面前期投入招标中的人力、物力、财力也全都打了水漂，还没把高铁建成。

B |

仔细分析整件事的始末，保加利亚的行为明显不符合逻辑。西班牙公司中标本身就不符合逻辑，一方面是报价太高，另一方面是后来的事实证明，它们根本没有对应的建设能力，那又如何在前期成功说服了保加利亚政府，拿下了订单？对于技术上的问题，Talgo公司一定心知肚明。他们清楚自己根本无法履行合同，却几乎是“捣乱”一般的胡乱参与竞标，这背后的真正搅局者，非欧盟莫属。

一句话，欧盟很担心，随着中国的高铁技术不断出口欧洲国家，将把中国高铁在欧洲市场的影响力推上顶峰。各国一旦习惯了中国的高铁标准，其他欧洲公司将很难打入这块市场。

C | 最后最可能的局面，就是大量欧洲国家，纷纷选择了中国的廉价且高品质的高铁技术。而欧洲一众高铁公司，将彻底没饭可吃。考虑到这么严重的后果，于是背地里，欧盟策动了这次狙击行动，目的就是宁愿搅黄保加利亚的高铁项目，也绝对不能给中国高铁可趁之机。当然，保加利亚肯定也是受到了来自欧盟方面的压力。但对于该国的经济损失和未来发展问题，肯定也不再欧盟的考虑之内。

D | 只能说保加利亚也是个欧盟决策“牺牲品”。总之高铁这回是建不成了，但保加利亚作为欧盟国家，或许还能凭借这件事，额外拿到一些欧盟的补贴，这样至少也是个安慰。

有人认为，正是因为中国公司报价太低，才引起了欧盟的怀疑，最终错失了订单。

E | 只能说，这样的分析完全不靠谱，难道报价低还成了中方的错不成？说到底，欧盟只是在故意给中国公司找茬罢了，这和中方的报价根本无关。不难设想，即使中方的报价和西班牙公司完全一样，也不可能获得中标的机会。回顾整件事的后果，中方其实没有太大的损失。在高铁项目上，6.1亿根本算不上一个大订单，而且看一下保加利亚方面的需求，中方的利润空间必然非常小。这笔钱，对我们来说可赚可不赚，但保加利亚毕竟是建不成高铁了，西班牙公司也挫伤了商业信誉，他们才是真正的输家。